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By the Numbers
2004 Analyst Forecasts
[March/April 2004]

The analyst community appears split on what 2004 will hold for REITs, with forecasts ranging from a 28 percent gain to an 11 percent decline in total returns. The highest prediction came from Stephanie Krewson at BB&T Capital Markets, who anticipates a 28 percent total return. On the low end was David Shulman of Lehman Brothers, projecting an 11 percent drop. As for specific sectors, the majority of the analysts Portfolio spoke with said retail (specifically the mall sector) would likely be the top-performing sector in 2004.

2004 Analyst Forecasts
Company Lead Analyst Total Returns Range Top Projected Sector
BB&T Capital Markets Stephanie Krewson 28% Triple-Net
Citigroup Smith Barney Jonathan Litt 15% Office
Merrill Lynch Steve Sakwa 5% to 15% Regional Malls
Legg Mason Wood Walker David Fick 12% Retail
Deutsche Bank Louis Taylor 10% to 12% Malls
A.G. Edwards William Camp 8% to 12% Retail
Raymond James Paul Puryear 9% to 11% Lodging
RBC Capital Markets Jay Leupp 7% to 10% Malls
Wachovia Capital Markets Christopher Haley 5% to 10% Retail (first half of 2004)
Credit Suisse First Boston Jay Habermann 6% to 8% Regional Malls
UBS Keith Mills 4% to 7% Office
Banc of America Securities Lee Schalop 0% Malls
Morgan Stanley Greg Whyte -5% to -10% Industrial
Lehman Brothers David Shulman -11% Malls
Source: NAREIT, Analyst reports.


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