By Courtney Darby
Portfolio catches up with five former leading REIT analysts
The publicly traded real estate industry has evolved greatly over the past four decades. Significant changes and milestones have been seen in the last decade alone. During the modern REIT era, there have been many professionals who have played a part in the industry's success, including many whose careers have taken them out of the day-to-day REIT world.
Portfolio spoke with five former leading REIT analysts to discuss the changes they've witnessed,
current thoughts on the industry and advice for today's analysts.
Jordan Heller, David Sherman, Jamie Handwerker, Steven Hash and Jeff Olson all contributed
to the industry in different ways and turned their REIT experience into noteworthy careers.
Jordan HELLER
CURRENT POSITION: Managing Director at American Economic Planning Group (AEPG)
ABOUT AEPG: An independent, full service, professional
financial planning firm that specializes in comprehensive planning for individuals and groups. AEPG was listed as one
of Bloomberg's top wealth managers.
REAL ESTATE BIO: Senior accountant, PricewaterhouseCoopers (1982–1985); analyst, Salomon Brothers (now
Citigroup Smith Barney) (1985–1986); first vice president/senior research analyst, Merrill Lynch (1987–1996); managing director/senior REIT research analyst, Salomon Brothers (1996–1997); senior research analyst, CIBC (1998–1999). While at Merrill Lynch, Heller served as lead manager on 32 REIT initial public offerings (IPOs) and as
co-manager on five offerings.
ANALYST REFLECTIONS: "The most rewarding thing about my experience as a REIT analyst was having the opportunity to be with a lot of good people at the start of the modern REIT industry and being able to make a significant contribution.
I also felt good about the success of the industry and most
of the companies I've been involved with."
ADVICE TO CURRENT REIT ANALYSTS: "Keep your integrity because there is life after sell-side research and you'll need it,"
Changes In The Industry: One of the biggest changes that Heller witnessed was the institutionalization of the industry and the emergence of the commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) market. "In the late-1980s to mid-1990s
it was primarily retail capital market experience, whereas today the market is mostly institutional," Heller says.
"Also the development of the CMBS market helped keep the supply closer to the demand and keep over-development from becoming rampant."
REIT FORECAST: "Because of the securitization process,
the REIT industry will continue to be one of the most stable sectors in the broader equity market. While it's hard to be
as bullish as before, I still believe REITs play a significant role in my clients' investment portfolios. I feel good about
the industry and where it has come to, and I believe it will continue to be that way."
EDUCATION: B.S. in accounting from Bentley College and a M.B.A. from the University of Chicago with a specialization
in finance and business policy. Also possesses a C.P.A., C.F.A. and C.F.P.
David SHERMAN
CURRENT POSITION: Adjunct associate professor of real estate finance at Columbia University and co-managing member and chief investment officer of Metropolitan Real Estate Equity
Management, LLC (MREEM).
ABOUT MREEM: An investment management firm co-founded
by Sherman, Bob Burke and David Nasaw, that creates and manages real estate private equity fund-of-funds for endowments, foundations and high net-worth investors. MREEM is
on its way to having $100 million in assets.
REAL ESTATE BIO: Vice president of real estate investment banking, The First Boston Corporation (1986–1991); managing director and partner, The Harlan Company (1991–1993); managing director of CMBS debt origination and securitization, Salomon Smith Barney (1993–1994); managing director, senior analyst and head of the REIT equity research team at Salomon Smith Barney (1995–2000). Sherman also sits on the board of directors for two public real estate companies: Keystone Property Trust (NYSE: KTR) and Brookefield Homes (NYSE: BHS).
ANALYST REFLECTIONS: "The most rewarding part for me was
taking two or three fairly bold positions that were different
than the average analyst and investor," Sherman says. "For example, I wrote a piece that harshly criticized the
general assumption that the only thing that matters is scale. My report said that it is nonsense and what really matters is the price the REIT pays for acquisitions. Scale will never make up the difference if you buy at the wrong price. Eventually the industry came around to agreeing with that opinion."
In addition, Sherman is pleased that his team helped the industry move toward net asset value (NAV) as a measure of value, which has now proven to be a mainstream measure of REIT value.
Advice To Current REIT Analysts: "The industry has been
lucky, as the fund flows have been incredible. The purpose
of an analyst is to add value and provoke thought, not to just
surf along with the wave. Remember the difference between lucky and smart. Enjoy it when you're lucky, but you still
have to be smart."
CHANGES IN THE INDUSTRY: "For whatever reason, there
seems to be a lot less difference in research than there
was five years ago. A lot of research I've read over the past
several years has been relatively simple and quickly done
without a lot of new thought. I'm not sure if that's a function
of the more stringent disclosure rules, which limit the
analyst's ability to have a detailed discussion with the
company about its earnings model, etc."
REIT FORECAST: Sherman believes we will continue to see
more of the same–cyclical stock prices that are driven
primarily by fund flows.
"REITs have been in favor because of the yield and the
stability of cash flow. There'll be a period of time in the future when other yields and cash flows are more interesting and
REIT prices will go down on a relative basis," Sherman says. "Basically, I expect a continuation of the status quo, plus or minus fund flows."
EDUCATION: B.A. in math/economics from Brown University, M.B.A in finance from Columbia University Graduate School
of Business Administration.
Jeff OLSON
CURRENT POSITION: President, Eastern and Western regions of Kimco Realty Corporation (NYSE: KIM).
ABOUT KIMCO REALTY: A retail REIT specializing in the acquisitions, development and
management of neighborhood shopping centers.
REAL ESTATE BIO: Public accountant, Reznick, Fedder and Silverman (1986–1991); assistant vice president, The Mills Corporation (NYSE: MLS) (1991–1996); REIT analyst, Salomon Brothers (1996–1998); head of real estate, CIBC (1998–2000); co-head of real estate research, Paine Webber, now UBS (2000–2002); joined Kimco in 2002.
ANALYST REFLECTIONS: For Olson, the most rewarding part about being an analyst was interacting with his peers.
Getting to know them, both on a business level and on a personal level, was a valuable experience, Olson says.
Advice to Current REIT Analysts: Olson's words of wisdom to current analysts are don't spread yourself too thin.
"You need to have enough time to do the highest quality research on the stocks that you follow," Olson says.
CHANGES IN THE INDUSTRY: "I read lots of analyst reports and it is encouraging to see how the quality of Wall Street research keeps increasing. Analysts that remain in the business are the ones that love what they do and that is reflected in their work."
REIT FORECAST: "I see the REIT industry expanding further and becoming more global. I think it has already come a far ways
since the days when we started. I also think there is a lot more growth when you're looking out over the next 10 years."
EDUCATION: B.A. in accounting from the University of Maryland, a M.S. in real estate development from Johns Hopkins.
Steven HASH
CURRENT POSITION: Global head of equity research at Lehman Brothers
ABOUT LEHMAN BROTHERS: Lehman serves the financial needs of corporations, governments and municipalities, institutional clients, and high net-worth individuals worldwide and maintains leadership positions in equity and fixed-income sales, trading and research, investment banking, private equity and private client services.
Real Estate Bio: Junior research analyst, Oppenheimer & Co. (1990–1992); REIT analyst, Oppenheimer
& Co. (1992–1993); senior REIT analyst at Lehman Brothers (1993–1999).
ANALYST REFLECTIONS: What Hash misses most about being an analyst is crunching the numbers and closely examining companies. "I'm a numbers person, I like analyzing numbers and trends. Basically, as a research analyst you take in a bunch of facts, you evaluate people and companies, then you make guesses about what that means will happen in the future," Hash says.
ADVICE TO CURRENT ANALYSTS: "Hang in there because there has been a lot of turmoil—we've had a fairly aggressive down cycle in
terms of the equity business and a fairly aggressive regulatory environment. It's been a tough time to be an equity research analyst, but I think the worst is behind us and potentially the best times lie ahead for being an equity research analyst."
CHANGES IN THE INDUSTRY: When asked what has been the biggest change in the REIT industry, Hash says it has been securitization.
REIT FORECAST: While not predicting future results, Hash says that REITs were, and still are, very integral to Lehman Brothers' investment strategy. "REITs are important at Lehman Brothers, and we have one of the top-rated REIT research teams," Hash says. "It is a core sector here and our clients have historically shown a great interest in REITs."
EDUCATION: B.A in business administration at Loyola College and a M.B.A. from New York University.
Jamie HANDWERKER
CURRENT POSITION: Portfolio manager for CRM Windridge
Partners, L.P.
ABOUT WINDRIDGE PARTNERS: A long/short equity hedge fund
that specializes in real estate related equities, including
REITs, hotels, homebuilders, health care facilities, restaurants, gaming, lodging, leisure and retail, with $76 million in assets under management.
REAL ESTATE BIO: Institutional real estate leasing and sales, Helmsley Spear Inc. (1983–1986); private partnerships, acquisitions and development (1986–1990); Handwerker Resources Inc. (1991–1994); managing director and equity research analyst, Furman Selz LLC (1994–1997); managing director and equity research analyst, ING (1997–2000); managing director and portfolio manager, ING Furman Selz Asset Management (2000–2002).
ANALYST REFLECTIONS: Handwerker is fond of her time spent
as an analyst, having covered a number of sectors, including apartment, office and hotel. For her, one of the most rewarding parts of being an analyst was engaging with clients and
uncovering new concepts, especially in the freedom of working at a company without an investment banking business.
"I could just tell the clients what I thought, idea by idea," Handwerker says. "That was a real luxury."
ADVICE TO CURRENT REIT ANALYSTS: "When I speak with an
analyst, what I like, and is helpful to hear, is a clear, decisive opinion and actionable items. Such as ‘buy this stock here,'
or ‘sell this stock because of these five reasons.'"
CHANGES IN THE INDUSTRY: Handwerker says she has witnessed several changes that have re-shaped the real estate industry and made it more investor-friendly.
"The industry has gone from a secretive business to a transparent business," Handwerker says. "If companies want capital they have to tell investors how they are going to use it and
show how the investor can make a good return on that capital."
REIT FORECAST: "I think the REIT industry will continue in
more of the same vein as it has been. However, from a stock picker's perspective, I believe that real estate stocks are
being priced inefficiently. Real estate and related securities
are largely misunderstood on Wall Street, which focuses
exclusively on factors not related to real estate valuation.
This leads to mispriced stocks that trade at a discount to
their real estate value."
EDUCATION: B.A. in economics from the University of
Pennsylvania.